美国经常账户逆差可持续性问题的另类思考

Toward Sustainability of U.S. Current Account Deficit: an Alternative Approach

美国经常账户逆差是结构性逆差,不应诉求美元贬值或迫使其他国家货币升值等数量性调控手段而加以改善,而应善用因美国经常账户逆差而输出的回流资本,一方面购买国内因产业结构升级而无法生产或少生产的国外廉价商品满足国内消费者必需品或中低端奢侈品的消费需求,提高国民福利;另一方面与国内因补偿性逆差或资源性逆差而释放出来的劳动力以及国内高端技术有效结合,提高国内生产率,增加国内GDP或扩大财富,稳定美元的储备地位,并利用增加的GDP、财富和美元的储备地位,使得NIIP/财富或△NIIP/GDP的比率保持在一个可容忍的稳定水平,加强外国投资者对美国的信心;同时将部分过剩的资本输至国外,与国外廉价的劳动力或优势资源相结合,获取高额的资本回报率,保持收入账户的盈余,降低利息偿付的压力。这样,净外债的增加加速了美国的经济和财富增长,进而强化了美元的储备地位,而经济的增长和储备地位的巩固又吸引外资流入,实现了良性的经济循环。因此只要美国仍能保持这一增长模式,且存在无限的生命周期,美国就能做到无穷的蓬齐博弈,美国经常账户逆差的可持续性就不会受到质疑。

The U.S. current account deficits are some kind of structural deficits, therefore, it couldn＇t decrease through quantitative instruments such as US dollar depreciation and appreciation of other currencies. Under this situation, it is in U.S. best interest to use well the regurgitating capital （originated from current account deficits） ： on one hand, the regurgitating capital could be used to buy cheap foreign goods; on the other hand, these capital could combined with labor and hightechnology to improve productivity and increase wealth so that NIIP/wealth or ANIIP/GDP keeps steady, ~vhich would strengthen foreign investors＇ confidence. At the same time, U.S. could export surplus capital to other countries, exploiting the labor and resources of those host countries ,to gain high rate of capital return and remain surplus in income account. It illustrates that the increase of net foreign debt accelerates the growth of U.S. economy and wealth and therefore strengthens USD as reserve currency, which ensure foreign capital to flow into US. So as long as the U.S. still maintains this growth pattern, there is an unlimited life cycle, the United States can do endless Ponzi games, the U.S. current account deficit will be sustainable.