货币错配与经济金融稳定--一个基于本币升值预期的两期微观经济主体行为模型

Economic and Financial Stability under Currency Mismatch: A Two-period Microeconomic Model Based on Expectation of Domestic Currency Appreciation

国内外的研究普遍显示,货币错配是造成金融和经济危机的主要原因之一。但是,目前研究者所构建的模型主要集中于对净外币负债形态的货币错配风险的研究,无法对我国当前所面临的净外币资产形态的货币错配风险的引致渠道作出解释。基于此,本文构建了两期微观经济主体(银行、企业)行为模型。模型表明本币的大幅升值会恶化微观经济主体的资产负债表,在一定情况下会导致一国的金融或经济危机。在此基础上,本文提出了相应的防范净外币资产形态下货币错配风险的政策建议。

Studies show that currency mismatch is one of the most important reasons that result in financial crisis, but all the existing models focused on the currency mismatch that take the form of net foreign loans. Obviously, they can＇t be applied to explain the risk that China is suffering. Based on this, this paper sets a two-period model to explain the risk that exists in the currency mismatch which take the form of net foreign currency assets. It reveals that the currency appreciation can trigger financial or economic crisis through balance sheet channel. Lastly, the paper gives some suggests to control this type of risk.