经济的内外均衡与调控模式选择--基于流动性过剩、结构性通货膨胀背景下的思考

Internal and External Economic Equilibrium and Macro-control Pattern: How to Handle Liquidity Surplus and Structural Inflation

本文基于我国流动性过剩和结构性通货膨胀的背景,研究货币政策在协调经济内外均衡方面的矛盾,分析在国外利率不断下降、人民币升值压力不断增加的情况下,利率政策与汇率政策的配合问题,并得出以下结论:提高基准利率水平、改变负利率状况以抑制通货膨胀;适度加大人民币有效汇率的升值幅度,以缓解国际收支失衡状况。

This paper empirically analyzes the dilemma of monetary policies to solve internal and external equilibrium. With the downward of foreign interest rate and the pressure of Chinese Yuan＇s appreciation, we elaborate the mix of interest rate policy and exchange rate policy, and make the following conclusions： to make the interest rate higher to cool inflation down; to fasten the paces of CNY＇s appreciation to smooth the disequilibrium.