基于PERT的项目工期风险传递机制

A Method of Project Schedule Risk Transmission based on PERT

项目受本身及环境因素影响而产生工期风险问题,由于对工期风险发生机制缺乏正确的认识,给整个项目的风险管理增加了难度。基于此,从风险相关性的角度研究了基于PERT的项目单时段和全时段工期风险的形成以及传递机制,以期能更加准确地把握项目工期风险发生规律,为项目成功运行提供有效的决策支持。最后举例说明了该方法的具体运用。

Each project is unique and the problems encountered during the project cannot be forecast in advance, so there is a large element of risk inherent in every project. The proper management of risk in the project schedule will play an important part in determining the success of the whole project. This paper presents a current period risk management method and a study on the mechanism of project schedule risk transmission based on the PERT system to solve this problem. Accordingly the risk studied by considering multi-time sections and the correlativity of the project sections will provide decision-making information for the management team. Finally an example is given to illustrate the specific application.