全球失衡背景下中国外部财富分析

Analysis on Chinese External Wealth in the Context of Global Imbalance

外部财富动态为理解全球失衡及其治理问题提供了新标准和新视角。与我国的经常账户持续盈余相对应,我国外部财富由负转正,但是外部财富的价值效应为负。运用外部财富的一个分析框架,对我国外部财富价值效应影响因素的分析表明,我国外部头寸与人民币名义汇率和实际利率存在显著的相互关系,与人民币实际有效汇率和美元实际利率则没有显著的相互关系。外部财富动态分析对于我国内外平衡的宏观经济政策选择具有丰富的政策含义。

The dynamics of external wealth can be used as a new perspective and standard for understanding the phenomena of global imbalance and its adjustment. As China has maintained current account surplus for more than one decade, Chinese external wealth has turned to a positive net foreign position from a negative one. Based on an analysis framework of external wealth, the result shows that Chinese net foreign asset has significant relationship with the nominal exchange rate and real interest rate of RMB, and has no significant relationship with real effective exchange rate of RMB and real interest rate of U.S. dollar. It has meaningful implication to the choice of macroeconomical policy aiming at the internal and external economic balance.