小麦赤霉病气象等级预报模式研究

Study on Prediction Model of Meteorological Grades for Wheat Scab

[目的]准确开展小麦赤霉病流行程度预报，科学合理地防治小麦赤霉病。[方法]对小麦赤霉病发生具有影响的气象因子进行统计分析，确定赤霉病致病日，计算赤霉病感病期间逐日诱发修正系数、赤霉病致病日的持续时间诱发修正系数，建立促病指数模型，判别小麦赤霉病气象条件适宜程度及发生的等级。[结果]经过42年资料的拟合、验证，模型能够准确判别出气象等级为4级（即赤霉病不流行）的年份。拟舍的赤霉病发生气象等级在1～3级的年份各地均超过90％，误差1个等级的占24％～38％，误差2个等级的占0～9％。2007年动态试报结果与实况相符。[结论]该方法比较真实地反映了当年的发病程度，可投入实际业务应用。

[ Objective ] The study was to provide a base for the accurate forecast of epidemic degree and scientific and reasonable prevention of wheat scab. [ Method ] By statistically analyzing meteorological factors affecting wheat scab outbreak, the pathogenic-day of scab was determined. The daily inducing correction index of scab in outbreak time and the duration inducing correction index of scab pathogenic-day were calculated, Promoting-disease-index models were established to determine and the suitable degree and occurrence grades of meteorological conditions on wheat scab, [ Result] After fitting and verification of 42 year data, the model could accurately discriminate the years of 4th meteorological grade （namely no scab prevalence） , the fitting years of 1 st - 3rd meteorological grade of scab emergence were more than 90% in everywhere, while the error of 1 grade was 24% - 38% and the error of 2 grades was 0 - 9%. The dynamic experiment forecast result in 2007 was according with the reality, [ Conclusion] The method could really reflect the disease degree in current year and could be applied in actuality.