南京市花粉浓度变化规律及预报方法研究

Study on Pollen Concentration Change Rule and Forecast Method in Nanjing City

在花粉观测和气象观测资料的基础上,分析了南京地区花粉季节变化规律和日变化规律,以及南京地区不同种类花粉的季节分布特点,发现南京地区花粉分布呈单峰型分布,具有很强的周期性和季节性。3月中旬起,花粉数量迅速增多,到4月中旬达到顶峰,此后缓慢下降,但起伏较大。同时,根据同期气象条件分析了气象因子(温度、湿度、降水、风速)对花粉浓度的影响,建立了花粉浓度预报方程:Y=0.703X1+0.005X2+0.005X3+0.452。其中,Y为花粉浓度预报值;X1为前一日花粉实况;X2为气压差;X3为温度差。

Based on the pollen observation and weather data, the pollen season and day change rules and seasonal distribution characteristic of different spices pollen in Nanjing region were analyzed. The results showed that the pollen was distributed in a single apex with distinctive periodical and seasonal characteristics in Nanjing. And the pollen increased rapidly since mid-March and reached the peak in mid-April, but then decreased slowly with big fluctuations. Weather factors of the same period, such as temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed were studied to examine their influences on the pollen concentration change. Pollen concentration forecast equation was set up： Y=0.703X1＋0.005X2＋0.005X3＋0.452. In the equation, Y was the pollen concentration forecast value. X1 was the actual value of pollen of the previous day, X2 was the air pressure difference, X3 was the temperature difference.