上海郊区耕地数量影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors of the Cultivated Land Quantity in the Suburb of Shanghai

近年来,上海的耕地数量和质量不断下降,对粮食安全和社会稳定都构成严重威胁。根据上海市及郊区范围内1995～2004年的耕地面积数据及其他重要社会经济发展数据,利用因子分析方法分析了对耕地变化有重要影响的经济、社会等主要因素,并对影响耕地变化的驱动力进行了研究。通过定量分析：耕地面积变化的驱动力可以归纳为经济发展和社会发展动力、工业化和社会系统压力以及农业科技进步。

In recent years, the quantity and quality of cultivated land in Shanghai have been dropped continuously, which seriously threatened the food security and social stability. Based on the data of cultivated land area and other important social and economic development data during 1995 - 2004 in Shanghai and its suburb, main factors such as economic factors and the social factors that had important effects on the changes of cultivated land were analyzed by using factor analysis method. And the driving forces that affected the changes of cultivated land were studied. Though the quantitative analysis, the driving forces of the cultivated land changes could be concluded as follows： the motive force of the economic and social development, the pressure of industrialization and social system and the progress of science and technology.