有限赶超与经济增长

Limited Catch-up and Economic Growth

本文考察一国经济发展中对外贸易格局与经济发展绩效的关系。文中提出了有限赶超的概念,并在Hausmann et al(2005)的基础上,重新定义贸易商品技术复杂度和一国出口产品技术含量,构建并测算112个国家(地区)在1965—2005年间的有限赶超指数。韩国和中国台湾地区的发展经验以及中国、印度、阿根廷发展现状的对比,充分表明有限赶超的成功。跨国回归分析表明,有限赶超对一国经济增长速度有显著正的影响,且短期效果大于长期效果。

This paper investigates the relationship between countries＇ trade patterns and their economic performances, We propose the concept of limited catch-up and construct the limited catch-up index （LCI） for 112 countries/regions in the period of 1965-- 2005. The successful stories of South Korea and Chinese Taiwan and comparison of China, India and Argentina show the advantages of limited catch-up. Econometric analysis shows that limited catch-up contributes significantly to better economic growth, and its short-term effect is larger than its long-term effect.