中国通货膨胀是工资成本推动型吗?——基于超额工资增长率的实证研究

Is Chinese Inflation Pushed by Wages:An Empirical Research Based on Excess Wage

需求拉动型与成本推动型通货膨胀之争是2007年中国通货膨胀问题争论的焦点,通货膨胀类型的差异隐含着治理通货膨胀的不同政策选择。本文基于2000年之后超额工资增长与通货膨胀的关系进行检验,实证结果表明货币供给而非超额工资增长是导致通货膨胀变化的主要因素。基于分部门工资数据的研究结果亦未发现超额工资存在对通货膨胀的显著响应。基于上述结果本文认为,2000—2007年中国尚不存在"工资-通货膨胀"循环机制。

Different opinions about the originations of the inflations began from the year of 2007 indicate different policies against further inflation. VAR research based on the import price, money supply, excess wage and inflation finds no solid evidences for the school of cost-push inflation. Further evidences from sector data also confirm the basic conclusions of the VAR research. There is no ＂wage-inflation＂ vicious circle in China yet. Money supply instead of excess wage made the most contribution for current inflation.