不确定条件下的最优教育选择——基于期权模型的实证研究

Educational Choices under Uncertainty——An Empirical Study Based on Option Model

教育投资不仅关系到个人一生的职业发展,还涉及到就业、稳定、资源分配等一系列社会问题,是各级政府都密切关注的问题。然而,教育投资存在很高风险,即投资收益存在较大的波动性和较宽的分布范围,阻碍个体作出合理教育投资的抉择。由于风险估计的复杂性,教育选择的研究一般都不考虑风险。借用金融的期权理论模型对风险的估算可以很好地评估个人预期收益的不确定性,进而推出个人的最优教育选择。采取工资微分和捆绑期权这两处巧妙的处理,就能使标准的期权公式适应教育投资的特殊性,便于实证检验在不确定条件下的最优教育投资成本。基于英国的面板数据估算结果显示,预测的最优高等教育参加人数与实际人数很接近,说明风险确实对于人们的教育选择有很显著的影响,尤其是对于普通高等学历来说更是如此。而参加职业高等教育的学生会更多考虑非货币因素。此外,对各学历的预测值均高于真实值,说明可能有部分群体由于得不到全面的信息而没有作出最优教育选择。

Educational investment concerns one＇s life-time career development and, along with it, the whole society＇s resource assignment. However,educational investment involving high risk that cannot be guaranteed by insurance company; and that may prevent individuals from making reasonable educational investment decisions. This article borrows financial option theory and tries to assess individuals＇ optimal educational choices under uncertainty, which allows us to examine the uncertainty in educational investment by empirical data. The British panel data shows risk does play an important role in individuals＇ educational choices, especially for academic higher education. Technical higher education participation will consider more non-- pecuniary utility.