变革中的能源格局:21世纪的最大挑战

Energy in flux: the 21st century’s greatest challenge

世界能源的地缘结构发生着转变,沙特-里海-西伯利亚-加拿大轴心将成为21世纪"地缘政治中的能源"驱动力量。以往的"石油博弈"正在变为"石油、天然气博弈",更有可能成为"天然气、石油博弈"。如果抓住这次机会,就可能开创市场推动的替代能源、节能、可持续发展和国际合作创新的新时代。"能源安全"的定义已不仅是能源供应的安全,而是包含了政治、环境、基础设施甚至反恐怖主义的安全,同时涉及可持续发展和气候变化。世界即将进入新能源时代,美国必须发挥带头作用。任何有效的解决方案都应在推动供给的同时改善需求。我们需要面向不同市场和各种供需终端的一系列技术,以满足在实现更广泛目标过程中的经济和社会需求。无论是发展中国家还是发达国家必须首先达成需要新技术的共识。他们必须围绕关键问题建立某种形式的国际合作,并制定必要政策推进变革。新的能源竞技场将由政策设置界限,监管创建规则,政府充当裁判,市场决定价格以及输家和赢家。

The global geography of energy is in the midst of a transformation, with the Saudi-Caspian-Siberia-Canada Axis poised to drive the 'energy of geopolitics'during the twenty- first century. The 'oil game' of old will become the 'oil and gas game'-or, more likely, the 'gas and oil game' . By seizing this opportunity, it may be possible to usher in a new era of market-driven innovation in alternative energy, energy conservation, sustainable development and international cooperation. More than just secure supplies, the meaning of 'energy security' now embraces political, environmental, infrastructure and even terrorism concerns, as well as sustainable development and climate change. As the world enters a new energy era, the United States must take the lead. Any effective solution will have to reform demand as well as boosting supply. We need a series of technologies for a variety of markets on both the supply and the demand ends in order to meet social and economic needs in the process of achieving broader goals. Developing and developed nations alike must first of all come to a consensus on the need for new technology. They have to address the critical issues through some form of international cooperation and create the necessary policy incentives for change. On the new energy playing field, policy will set the boundaries, regulation will create the rules, government authorities will serve as the referees, and the market will determine prices, as well as the winners and losers in the game.