摘要
中国已经达到低生育水平,但对真实生育率却一直迷茫,人口规划与宣传口径与实际调查统计长期严重脱节。为了推进低生育水平研究,文章综述了低生育率类型的划分口径,并对若干生育率或出生漏报率的估计从方法上做了简要评论。借鉴国外低生育因素模型,文章对中国具体情况的研究发现:推迟生育对总和生育率具有显著压抑作用;而子女性别偏好对生育率的影响方式已经从多生转向性别导向的人工流产,因而也会显著降低生育率。文章还通过示意性测算表明,在低生育率研究中忽视其他抑制因素便会导致夸大出生漏报对生育率的影响。此外,文章还对近年人口流动对流出地和流入地乃至全国生育率的影响进行了分析。
China has already attained low fertility; however, there is uncertainty around the actual fertility. This paper summarizes classification and discussion of low fertility, and reviews methodological issues in estimating fertility or birth under--reporting. Using Bongaarts low fertility model, it is found that childbearing postponement had a significant depressing effect on China＇s total fertility rate; while the way in which son preference affects fertility shifted from multiple childbearing into sex--selective abortions, thus reducing fertility. Illustrative calculation shows that ignoring other factors depressing fertility would lead to exaggeration of the effect of birth under--reporting on fertility. Finally the paper discusses impact of migration on fertility in areas of origin, areas of destination and for China as a whole.
出处
《人口研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2008年第4期1-12,共12页
Population Research
基金
教育部人文社科重点基地重大项目“家庭代际关系的人口社会学研究”(05JJD840002)的成果之一”
关键词
低生育水平
影响因素
推迟生育
性别偏好
流动人口
Low fertility
Total fertility rate
Birth deferment
Sex preference, Floating population
