多种评价方法在农业气象灾情评价中的综合应用

A Comprehensive Application of Several Evaluation Methods in Situation Assessment of Agro-meteorological Disasters in Fujian Province

应用不同方法进行农业气象灾情评价时,常出现评价结果不一致的现象。本文利用Kendall’s W协和系数对多种评价结果进行一致性检验,提出了一种多方法综合应用的系统评价方法,并对福建省近25 a的农业气象灾情进行了综合评价。结果表明,该方法克服了以往只用一种方法评价的片面性,能较好地消除各方法评价同一样本资料时存在差异的现象,使得评价结果更加符合实况,提高了评价的可靠性。

The assessment results were frequently inconsistent by using the different evaluation methods in the situation assessment of agro - meteorological disasters. The Kendall＇ s W coefficient was used to verify the consistency of the assessment results of the different evaluation methods. A systematical assessment method integrated by a comprehensive application of the several evaluation methods was proposed and applied to the situation assessment of agro-meteorological disasters in the last 25 years in Fujian Province. The result showed that this method could revise the unilateral results caused by using single particular method and remove the result differences estimated by the different methods to the same data so that it made the results more reliable.