滨海新区K区域动态发展规划的模型研究

Research on Dynamic Developing Planning of K District of Tianjin Binhai New Area

采用超效率DEA模型和趋势预测模型对天津滨海新区K区域2007-2011年的产值密度和税收密度进行预测。首先利用超效率DEA模型计算出我国54个国家级经济技术开发区的超效率值,以其中有效的9个开发区的超效率值为权重,结合它们1997-2006年各开发区产值密度和税收密度值,建立回归模型。再根据滨海新区K区域2006年产值密度和税收密度值,得到其未来5年动态发展规划,对K区域发展有一定指导作用。

Super efficiency DEA and trend prediction model are applied for predicting the density of production and density of revenue of K district of Binhai District, Tianjin from 2007 to 2011. First, this paper explains that SE-DEA model is applied for evaluating the super efficiency of 54 Chinese economic development zones and 9 of them, and then, it attempts to create a regressive model with the super efficiency value of 9 effective economic development zones as weight, and with the basis of their density of production and density of revenue from 1997 to 2006.Finally, it presents a dynamic plan of developing the next 5 years of the K area.