突发公共事件预警分级模型

Warning classification model for public emergencies

为了有效应对突发公共事件,合理调配应急救援资源,对突发公共事件预警分级的定量模型进行了研究,建立了预警分级综合模糊评判模型的计算框架。从事件自身因素和应急管理因素2个方面的致灾强度要素、危害损失程度、影响范围因素、时间要素、认知程度、社会影响程度、公众心理承受能力、应急管理水平等8个维度构建了预警分级的影响因素,用层次分析法确定各层级影响因素的权重,并采用多级模糊综合评判的方法给出预警等级。最后,以危化品泄露的预警分级为例进行了计算。结果表明:综合模糊评判方法和层次分析法结合应用可以对突发公共事件进行预警分级的计算,并且便于考虑突发公共事件的各种复杂因素。

Efficient responses to public emergencies and allocating limited emergency resources need accurate warning classifications. A quantified model Was developed with a fuzzy logic framework for obtaining the warning classification. The incident factors and emergency management factors were divided into eight dimensions that were the disaster force intensity, degree of loss, affected areas, time factor, degree of cognition, degree of social impact, ability of mental endurance, and level of emergency management.The weighting factors for each level were determined using an analytic hierarchial process. The warning classification was determined using a multi-level fuzzy logic method. A dangerous chemical leak was used as an example to validate the model. The results show that fuzzy logic method effectively computes the warning classification.