闽江下游稻区水稻白叶枯病流行预测模型的研究

Studies on Forecasting Model for Controlling the Prevalence of Rice Bacterial Blight in Paddy Fields in Lower Reaches of Ming River

对闽江下游稻区的水稻白叶枯病流行规律经过２３ａ系统的调查研究，明确了病害流行主导因子。用逐步回归法在ＳＨＡＲＰＥＬ－５１０３计算器上建立３个多因子流行预测模型，用ｘ２检验理论值和实测值拟合率均达９９．５％，历史符合率达９１．４％～１００％，经１９９５、１９９６两年试报结果均是轻发生年，与实际相符。

The prevalent pattern of rice bacterial blight had been observed for 23 years in rice paddy fields in lower reaches of Ming River, and the dominant factor of the disease prevalence was definited.By using progressive regression,three forecasting models for analysing multifactor prevalence have been established.x2 examination showed that,the fitting probabilities of the theoretical with practical data were 995%,the historial conformable rate reached 914%～100%. The preliminary forecasting results by using these models in 1995 and 1996 were conformed with the practice which the disease was lightly occured in this area.