基于改进灰色模型的天然气产量预测

Predication of Natural Gas Production Based on an Improved Grey Model

针对灰色模型对天然气产量预测精度不高的问题,应用指数平滑法对样本数据进行处理,既充分利用样本中的有用信息,又减少其随机性;同时对灰色模型的背景值计算方法进行了改进,将样本数据变换成规律性强的呈指数变化的序列。实例分析表明,改进的灰色模型有较高的预测精度。

In order to improve prediction accuracy of grey model in natural gas production prediction,exponential smoothing method is used for sample data processing,which can not only make full use of the available information but also diminish the randomness of data.In addition,calculation method on background value of grey model is improved to transform the calculated production data to be a regular exponential variety sequential.The experiments show that improved grey model by exponential smoothing can improve prediction accuracy.