中国乳业竞争结构演化的博弈分析

Game theoretic analysis on structural evolvement of Chinese dairy industry competition

构筑了市场竞争条件下乳品业竞争的博弈模型,从需求拉动、过度竞争和产品升级三个发展阶段分析乳业竞争模式的演进,表明中国乳业正处于第二阶段向第三阶段的演进之中。第二阶段中乳品企业的盲目扩张只能导致产能过剩,加之价格战和广告战的共同作用,乳业陷入过度竞争的困境;第三阶段通过产品升级,实力领先的企业已经进入高端市场,高端产品为领先乳品企业带来高额利润,原有市场的竞争强度得以降低,产业竞争向更有效率的方向演进。

The paper establishes a game model of dairy industry competition and analyses the evolvement of competitive modes of dairy industry in terms of demand-pull, excessive competition and products upgrading these three stages. The results showed that the Chinese dairy industry is evolving from the 2nd stage to the 3rd stage. At the 2nd stage an indiscriminate expansion of dairy enterprises can lead to excess capacity, and consequently price war and advertising campaign make dairy industry be mired in a dilemma of excessive competition. At the 3rd stage leading enterprises have stepped into a high-grade market through upgrading of products and earned huge profits, and the tension of former market competition can reduce. Therefore the competition of dairy industry evolves in the direction of higher efficiency.