多变量弱信息非线性预测问题的一类组合模型

Nonlinear Combined Model Based on Predictive Problem of Multivariate and Weak Information

针对预测研究中,变量指标较多,数据携带的信息较弱且和预测变量是非线性关系。造成预测模型构建困难且预测结果稳定性不强的问题,提出了构造非线性组合模型的方法,解决了上述问题。应用于华北地区的地震预报,取得了较好的效果。

This paper is directed to the problems of the difllculty in constructing predictive model and instability of predictive results, caused by more variable indicators ,weak information carried by data and non-linear relationship between forecast variables in forecast research. The nonlinear combined model is constructed solve the problems. In the meantime, this method is applied to earthquake forecast in North China ,and achieved satisfactory effect.