基于GRD的黑龙江省农村劳动力转移长期预测分析

The Long-run Forecasting Analysis for Rural Labor Transfer in Heilongjiang by GRD Model

根据演化博弈理论建立了黑龙江省农村劳动力转移的一般化模仿者动态模型(GRD,Generalized Repli-cator Dynamic),对黑龙江省农村劳动力转移最终稳定状态和长期趋势进行了预测分析。研究表明:稳定状态下农村就业比例在30%左右,基期数据中黑龙江省城乡收入差距总体上呈现上升趋势;最终稳定状态下城镇部门就业比例越大,农村部门就业比例越小;农村劳动力转移的动态过程渐进稳定收敛到均衡点,转移过程的长期趋势与学习障碍无关。

This paper uses the evolutionary game theory to build the GeneraliZed Replicator Dynamic forecasting model that includes three departments. It forecasts the finally stable state and long - run tendency of Heilongjiang rural labor transfer. It draws conclusions that rural department employing proportion will be above 30% in the finished stable state. The more urban-rural income disparity in basal period statistical data, the less urban department employing proportion and the more rural department employing proportion in the finally stable state. The dynamic function asymptotic stable converges to the Nash equilibrium. The long - run trend for rural labor transfer is independent of learning barriers.