基于灰色关联分析和GM(1,1)模型的我国刑事案件预测与防范

The Forecast and Prevention of Chinese Criminal Cases Based on Gray Relative Analyses and GM(1,1) Mould

将我国刑事案件数与我国经济指标进行关联分析,找出与犯罪关联度较大的因素,同时利用灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型,以我国2002年至2006年刑事案件立案数为原始数据,对2007年刑事案件立案数进行预测,经过数据筛选,得到预测精度高的预测结果。在此基础上提出预防犯罪应采取的对策。

This paper makes a relative analysis of Chinese criminal cases＇number and Chinese economic target, and then finds out the reason which has a comparatively large degree of relative with crime. By making use of gray system theory GM （ 1,1 ） mould and taking the registered criminal cases＂ number from 2002 to 2006 as the original data, it has forecast the registered criminal cases＂ number in 2007, screened out the data and got exact result. Based on the above, it puts forwards some countermeasures for crime -prevention.