气候变化科学研究的国际发展态势与挑战

The Current Characters and Future Challenges for Climate Change Studies

该文在介绍国际气候变化科学研究体系的基础上,分析了气候变化科学以多学科交叉支持、全时空研究覆盖、关注气候与人类活动间复杂关系为主的研究特点。从气候变化研究的关键问题和发展趋向的角度,分析了气候变化科学研究的挑战。文章指出未来研究的关键问题包括:1)气候变化科学中的关键性基础研究;2)气候变化中的不确定性研究;3)气候变化影响、反馈机制与预测研究;4)气候变化的社会学方面研究;5)针对提高气候变化适应与减缓能力的开发研究;6)发展有利于实现气候变化目标的国际合作框架。从发展趋势上来说,发展跨越历史、现在和未来的气候变化评估、预测和预警研究将成为气候变化科学研究的重要方向;社会科学将更多地介入气候变化科学研究并成为气候变化科学研究的重要特征;适应和减缓将成为气候变化科学研究的重要内容;气候变化科学研究将推动构建新的世界观和价值观体系。文章最后提出,我国也需要根据社会经济发展现状、科学研究的基础和自然条件,进行与气候变化相关的基础科学、技术开发、应对策略等方面的专门研究,提高我国应对气候变化的可持续发展能力。

Based on the introduction to the system of international climate change studies, the current research characters were summarized, which include： （1） Supported with multi-disciplinary involvement; （2） covering the whole time-space scales; （3） focusing on the complex relationships between the human society and nature environment. Climate change study is still a young subject. It is and will be facing some critical challenges. The paper analyzed the challenges from the angles of key issues and future trends of climate change research. Some key issues in the climate change researches that addressed in this paper include： （1） The critical basic science challenges; （2） research uncertainties; （3） influence/feedback mechanisms and predictions; （4） societal aspects of climate change; （5） technologies and policies to improve the capacities of responses and mitigations; （6） reformation of the international climate framework to achieve the global climate aims. From the angles of the research trends, climate change study will： （1） aim to strength the assessment, prediction and early-warning crossing the history, the current and the future; （2） be characterized with social sciences involving in the climate change study widely and deeply; （3） pay more attentions to the adaptation and mitigation; （4） help to establish sustainable and new views on the world and worth. Some recommendations are put forward finally to the researches in China. Chinese researches should be aimed to keep improving the sustainable capacity in the climate change challenges by developing the basic research, climate related technologies, and climate policies/activities based on Chinese social-economic status, science basics, and natural situations.