韩美自由贸易协定全面实施对中国经济的影响

Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Korea-America FTA's Full Implementation on China's Economy

运用GTAP模型和Walmsley动态递归法,就韩美自由贸易协定全面实施对中国在贸易规模、贸易结构、双边贸易、生产格局、GDP和福利水平等方面的经济影响进行了一般均衡模拟研究。研究表明,中国进口所受影响大于出口,贸易规模有所扩大,贸易条件略有改善;中国农产品相对薄弱,在韩国市场会受到来自美国的负面冲击,但影响不会太大;中国进出口增长主要来源于加工制造业,高科技产品所受冲击有限,依然能够有效扩大在美国的市场份额;中国服务业未有太大波动,各产业产出水平有所增长,但并不明显;中国GDP略有减少,但国民福利会有一定改善。

Applying GTAP model and combining Walmsley＇s dynamic recursion, this paper does a computable general equilibrium analysis on the impact of Korea - America FTA＇s full implementation on China＇ s economy annually from aspects of trade scale, trade structure, GDP and the social welfare. The results indicate that, China endures more impact on imports than that on exports, its trade scale expands and terms of trade improve; competed with America, China＇ s primary products are correspondingly inferior, and suffer some negative impact on Korea market, because of the favorable geographical position, the impact isn＇t too great; China＇ s trade expansion centrally roots in manufactures, as the impact on its high - lech products is limited, it still can expand the share on America market under Wade creation effects; the impact on China＇s services is not evident, output of each industry enlarges a little but not significantly; China＇s GDP reduces while its social welfare improves.