河北小麦白粉病流行的气象指标研究

A research on climatic indices for epidemic of wheat powdery mildew

以河北省中南部小麦白粉病发生较重的麦区为例,利用白粉病观测资料与区域病情调查资料和气象资料,采用合成分析法、秩和检验法进行了小麦白粉病关键气象影响因子的筛选和预测因子临界值的确定;建立了预测因子指标。基于灾变规律关键时方法,建立了白粉病发生程度的预测指标模型,并对区域小麦白粉病年度发生程度进行了拟合、外延预报。结果表明,10年拟合预报中仅有1年偏差1个等级;2年外延预报结果与实际发生情况完全一致。对1995-2007年,白粉病轻度发生年份的预测准确率为100%,流行年份的预测准确率为83%,模型的总预测准确率达90%以上。

Taking the middle-south part of Hebei Province as an example, the relationship between climatic factors and wheat powdery mildew was analyzed by means of compound analysis and order statistics. The wheat powdery mildew prediction factors and its critical values were determined and prediction indexes were established based on observed and investigated powdery mildew information and meteorological data. The modelling and forecast were made for the regional extent of wheat powdery mildew also. The results show that there is only 1 level difference in 1 over 10 years, and the extrapolated forecast value for 2 years is the same as the real condition. The total forecast accuracy of the model is more than 90% ,it is 100% for light occurrence years and 83% for epidemic years respectively during 1995-2007.