T213与AREM模式分级降水预报对比检验

Verification of T213 and AREM Grading Precipitation Prediction

为检验T213与AREM模式的降水预报效果,将2004—2005连续两年两个模式的预报结果与河南省117站逐日降水实况进行分级TS评分检验,结果发现:两个模式对小雨以上量级的预报能力基本相当,夏秋季节的预报效果好于冬春季节;中雨以上量级预报均无季节特征;大雨以上量级的预报评分夏季T213高于AREM模式;大暴雨预报AREM模式好于T213。对3例不同性质降水过程落区的预报检验表明:AREM对一般稳定性降水和暴雨以上量级降水的预报能力较强。

In order to check the precipitation prediction ability of T213 and AREM, precipitation prediction of T213 and AREM from 2004 to 2005 and grading TS score verification of 117 stations daily precipitation in Henan province are made. TS score result shows that： the two models show basically the same prediction ability on light rain, and better prediction ability in summer and winter than in spring and autumn; basically the same prediction ability on moderate rain in different season; T213 shows better prediction ability on heavy rain in summer than AREM; AREM shows better prediction ability on rainstorm than T213. Verification of the 3 different kind rain area of precipitation process shows that AREM shows better prediction ability on stability precipitation and rainstorm.