水库防洪预报预泄调度的风险分析

Risk Analysis of Flood Forecast and Pre-Discharge Operation of Reservoir

水库预报预泄调度是水库防洪调度的重要方式之一,它可以提高水库防洪能力.通过分析水库预报预泄调度可能产生的后果,给出了水库预报预泄调度风险率的定义.建立了考虑洪水预报误差情况下入库径流的随机模拟方法.通过大清河流域王快水库和龙门水库实际应用表明,在目前的洪水预报精度情况下,对于10年一遇以下的洪水,对这两座水库进行防洪预报预泄调度要冒汛限水位不能及时恢复的风险,进而可能影响水库的供水需求;而对于20年一遇洪水以上的洪水,对其进行预报预泄调度是非常必要的,所发挥的防洪效益也比较明显.

Flood forecast and pre-discharge operation is one of the most important flood control methods, which can improve flood control ability of reserviors, We defined pre-discharge operation risk through analyzing the possible results of pre-discharge operation with flood forecasting. Incoming runoff random simulation method was established considering flood forecasting error. The method was applied in Wangkuai reservoir and Longmen reservoir in Daqing river basin. Results show that it is very possible that flood control level cannot be restored in time and water supply will be affected for 10-year return flood; while flood pre-discharge operation can improve benefit of flood control obviously for 20-year return flood.