近30年气候变化对西藏农业生产影响的研究

The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Tibet during the recent thirty years.

分析了西藏主要农区近30年气候资源的动态变化,结果表明气候变暖主要在冬季和夏季,尤以6月增温明显;积温增高,无霜期缩短;沿雅鲁藏布江一线、昌都年降水量每10年减少4～30mm,东南部年降水量呈递增趋势。80年代各农区光温生产潜力均高于60年代和70年代,30年平均每年上升11～62kg/hm^2。30年气候生产潜力最高的10年为70年代,最低的10年为80年代。

Results from analysis of the dynamics of climatic resources during the recent 30 years in the main agricultural regions in Tibet showed that climatic warming mainly ocurred in winter and summer,especially in June. Accumulated temperature was increasing,and frost-free period was shortening. Rainfall along the river and in Changdu was decreasing at the rate of 4-30mm per year,while in the south-east Tibet,annual rainfall gradually increased. Potential light-temperature productivity in 1980s was higher than those in 1960s and 1970s at increasing rate of 11-62 kg/hm2 annually during the recent three decades. For the potential climatic productivity,the highest appeared in 1970s,and the lowest in 1980s.