陕西未来人口发展趋势分析

Abstract of analysis on future developments in Shaanxi population

自上世纪70年代大力开展计划生育以来,陕西在控制人口增长方面取得了较为显著的成绩,人口生育率进入到低生育水平时期。进入"十一五",陕西制定了国民经济和社会发展计划,提出到2020年全省总人口控制在4050万以内,确保人均国内生产总值达到3500美元。本文将依据2005年1%人口抽样调查资料,采用年龄移算法,对陕西省2006—2030年的人口发展规模、人口生育率、人口增长率、人口年龄构成变化、育龄妇女变化等进行科学准确的测算。提出了在低生育水平下,人口与计划生育工作出现的新情况、新问题,是构建社会主义和谐社会、落实科学发展观大环境下人口与计划生育工作者面临的新的机遇和挑战。

Since implementing family planning in the 1970s, Shaanxi has gained remarkable achievements in controlling population growth and entered a new period of low birthrate. Entering a period of the llth Five-Year Plan （2006-10）, Shaanxi worked out the Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development .The goal is that Shaanxi is to have its population within 40.5 million and the per capita GDP reached US$ 3500 by 2020. This article will estimate the development trends in population size, fertility rate, growth rate, age structure and composition, changes in childbearing women from 2006 to 2030 which is based on the data of the sample survey of population in 2005. New questions that have arisen under new circumstances in population and family planning at a low birth rate is the new chance and challenge for population and family planning workers in the circumstances of building a harmonious society and carrying out the scientific concept of development