中国人口出生性别比发展趋势的分形分析

A Fractal R/S Trend Analysis of Sex Ratio at Birth of the Population in China

人口出生性别比是人口学的一个重要研究课题。文章采用非线性分形分析R/S法,对1950-2003年间中国人口出生性别比的发展演变特征进行实证分析。结果显示:中国人口出生性别比发展演变具有明显的分形特征;中国人口出生性别比的发展趋势存在很强的持续性,即出生性别比在未来的53年间持续偏高的概率将很大;中国人口出生性别比的发展演变可能存在一个大约27年的周期。

Sex ratio at birth of the population is an important research topic in Demography. The paper analyses the features of evolution of sex ratio at birth of the population by using the non-linear fractal R/S analysis method, producing the Hurst index values and fractal dimension values. The result shows that there are some obvious fractional characteristics during the process of sex ratio at birth of the population evolution in China, there is a strong trend of development that Sex Ratio at Birth in China＇s population in the next 53 years will be sustained at very high level, and there may be an approximately 27-year cycle in development and evolution of the sex ratio at birth of the population in China.