汇率、货币供给与流动性过剩

Exchange Rate,Monetary Supply and Surplus of Liquidity

在我国人民币升值和货币流动性过剩的环境下,本文建立基于广义货币供应量和名义汇率变量的VAR模型来分析两者之间的传递效应。通过模型估计和运用脉冲响应函数分析方法进行研究,得出下列结论:从静态角度看,人民币汇率与货币供应量互为影响,其中人民币升值不仅没有造成货币供给的增加,而且还缓解了当前货币流动性过剩的压力,而货币供给的增加却加速了人民币的升值;从动态角度看,货币供应量对汇率的冲击强于人民币汇率对货币供应量的冲击,但两者之间的冲击强度存在边际递减趋势,表明从干预强度和有效性角度讲,货币政策均强于汇率政策。

Under the surroundings of the RMB appreciation and surplus of monetary liquidity, based on the parameters of general monetary supply and nominal exchange rate, this paper constructs a VAR model to analyze the relationship among them. With model evaluating and impulse response function （IRF） analyzing, this paper draws two conclusions： from static respective, RMB rate and monetary supply influent each other; from dynamic respective, the impulse from monetary supply is stronger than that from RMB rate, but the margin of impulse intensity is decreasing. It shows that monetary policy is more useful than rate policy.