可用输电能力评估的序贯蒙特卡罗仿真法

Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for Assessment of Available Transfer Capability

电力市场环境下,频繁的电能交易使系统运行的不确定性急剧增加。为保证系统的安全、可靠和经济运行,必须合理考虑不确定性因素的影响后,再对电网输电能力进行评估。该文提出了一种基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的可用输电能力(available transfer capability,ATC)计算方法,能综合考虑动态时变性和不确定性的影响,根据元件的运行特性及状态转移特性按时间顺序来仿真系统状态,并定义一系列的概率指标进行ATC评估。采用Matlab6.5编写相关的计算程序,通过IEEE39节点系统的算例分析,证明在ATC计算中,考虑不确定性和时变性因素的必要性。计算结果表明,该文提出的方法新颖实用,具有一定的工程应用价值。

In electricity markets, the uncertainties of power system operation increase greatly because of the frequent power transactions. The assessment of available transfer capability （ATC） should be carried out to assure the secure and economic operation of power systems. Considering the uncertainties, dynamics and time-varying of power systems, a novel approach is proposed to calculate and assess ATC based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation. The system operation state can be simulated over time duration, and a series of ATC assessment indices are defined to evaluate ATC. The algorithm based on Matlab 6.5 is developed. The IEEE 39-node test system is used to verify the presented approach. The results show that the proposed method is effective and practical.