陕西苹果花期霜冻灾害分析

Analysis of frost damage during apple bloom period in Shaanxi province

以苹果为主的果业是陕西省支柱产业,利用陕西省关中、陕北47个县(区)气象资料及6个苹果物候气象观测站资料,采用线性倾向估计方法研究了苹果产区冬季气温变化趋势,结果表明气温变化呈上升趋势。应用模式Y=!FiXi计算、分析了气候变化背景下陕西苹果北扩主要限制因素-花期冻害在陕西省苹果产区的发生风险。将Y(冻害灾损率)作为区划指标,以县为单位将陕西苹果花期冻害风险分为4个区:重度风险区、中度风险区、轻度风险区、基本无风险区。对区划结果进行了分区评述,提出了陕西苹果产业北扩建议,陕北北部的佳县、吴堡、绥德、府谷、横山、米脂、子洲、子长是花期冻害基本无风险区及轻度风险区内地区,可优先发展苹果产业。

Apple growing is the primary fruit industry in Shaanxi province. Based on the analysis of the meteorological data of 47 counties and the data of 6 Apple Observation Stations, by using the linear tendency estimate method the changes of the winter temperature in the apple producing areas in the province were reviewed and studied. Results indicated that the temperature in apple producing areas has been an escalating trend. The frost damage during bloom period in the producing areas was calculated and analyzed by using the pattern of Y= ∑ Fi Xi. Shaanxi province could be divided into 4 regions： serious damage risk region, mild damage risk region, light damage risk region and basically no damage risk region. It is suggested that for expanding apple producing area, in the Northern part of this province, the following counties with light damage risk and basically no damage risk, like Jiacounty, Wubu, Suide, Fugu, Hengshan, Mizhi, Zizhou and Zichang should be given priority for development of apple industry.