利用树轮图像灰度重建南天山北坡西部初夏温度序列

Reconstruction of Early Summer Temperature from Tree-ring Grey Value in West of Northern Slope of South Tianshan Mountains

通过相关普查发现，最大灰度标准化年表与6—7月平均温度存在显著的负相关，最高单相关系数为-0．588，且具有明确的树木生理学意义。利用阿合牙孜（AHY）次年、乔拉克铁热克（QLK）当年、腊拉散（LLS）当年、琼库什太（QKS）次年的最大灰度标准化年表能够较好地重建南天山北坡西部6～7月平均温度序列，方差解释量达55．2％，并通过交叉检验表明重建结果是稳定可靠。南天山北坡西部地区6—7月平均温度重建序列具有如下特征：①经历了6个偏暖阶段和5个偏冷阶段，且多个阶段与全球变暖有较好的响应；②利用功率谱分析发现11a、52a的准周期变化，利用小波分析对周期的时频变化研究发现气温中短周期振荡随时间不断减弱，进入20世纪这种趋势更加明显，同时50～60a的长周期变化一直存在；③发生了2次明显的突变，其中包括1916年与1935年。

Tree-ring grey degree chronologies were established according to samples from the west of north- ern slope of South Tianshan Mountains. Single correlation screen indicated that the correlations were signifi- cant between the tree-ring residual chronologies and the June--July mean temperature, and the maximum correlation coefficient was --0. 588. At the same time, the result has distinct physiological significance. Based on the 4 tree-ring grey degree chronologies in LLS（t）, QKS（t ＋1）, QLK（t） and AHY（t ＋1）, the June--July mean temperature series of northern slope of South Tianshan Mountains in the recent 156 a was well reconstructed; the reconstructed equation was stable and reliable proved by crossing-test. The recon- structed temperature series had experienced 6 warm periods and 5 cold periods, well corresponding to global change in most periods. There were significant period cycles of 11 years and 52 years in long-term change of temperature. The short period vibration weakened along with time, but the longer existed all the time. The temperature series appeared abrupt change in 1916 and1935.