灰色关联分析法在公路交通事故黑点成因分析中的应用

Cause Analysis on the Formation of the Highway Traffic Black-spot with the Gray Association Degree Method

针对公路交通事故黑点原因的不确定性,本文从人、车、路、环境4个子系统整体出发,确定与事故相关的主因素。采用概率统计方法确定各主因素的主元素,并运用灰色关联分析法,对各主元素的事故指标进行统计分析,计算其关联系数及关联度,最终通过各主元素关联度的大小来确定事故黑点成因。

Aiming at the uncertain factors forming highway traffic accident black-spots, this paper considered the four subsystems of people, vehicles, roads, surroundings as a whole, and determineed the main accident factors. It also determined the primary elements of main factor based on the probability statistics method, made a statistical analysis on the accident indices of each main factor, and calculated the relational coefficients and association degree with the gray association degree method. Finally, the causes forming the accident black-spots werr determined through the association degree of the primary elements.