福州市区降雨序列多时间尺度的混沌特征

Chaotic Characteristics on Multi-time Scales of Precipitation Series in Fuzhou Urban Region

利用多时间尺度(Δt=1,2,3,6月)对福州市区近60 a来降雨序列进行混沌分析,以相空间重构、相空间嵌入维数m、饱和关联维数D2、饱和关联维数D2与相空间嵌入维数m的比值和最大Lyapunov指数λ等参数揭示了福州市区降雨序列的混沌特征.结果表明:各种时间尺度的相空间重构m都为8、饱和关联维数D2分别为3.19,3.24,3.15和3.13,D2/m分别为0.400,0.405,0.394和0.391,最大Lyapunov数λ分别为0.33,0.50,0.34和0.25,体现了各种时间尺度下福州市降雨量存在着混沌现象;通过对比分析,得出以Δt=6时的时间尺度分析降雨序列的混沌特征较好.

Based on the data of monthly precipitation time series for past 60 years in Fuzhou urban region,the phase space reconstruction, the phase space embeding dimension rn, the main quantitative indexes of saturation correlation dimension D2 , the rate of D2/m and the maximal Laypunov exponent, λ. are analyzed with the multi-time scales （△t = 1,2,3 and 6 months） to reveal the Chaotic characteristics of the precipitation time series. The results show that chaos exists in the precipitation time series. The values for the different time scales are the same and equal 8. D2is 3.19, 3.24, 3.15 and 3.13 respectively, and D2/m is 0. 400, 0. 405, 0. 394 and 0. 391 respectively, the maximal Lyapunov exponent, λ equals respectively to 0. 33, 0.50, 0.34 and 0. 25. Precipitation series include certain composition and the change characteristics of the composition are analyzed more reasonably by the time scale of△t = 6 in Fuzhou urban region.