基于第四代地震区划的跨越发震断层永久位移概率分析方法

A probabilistic approach to evaluate permanent displacement crossing fault by 4th generation seismic zoning map of China

本文主要借鉴了Lee(2007)和Youngs(2003)提出的地表永久位移估计方法,联合中国第四代地震区划图的潜在震源区参数,给出了适合中国跨越发震断层永久位移概率分析方法。震害调查表明,近场的结构破坏不仅是地震动引起的,地震地表的破裂或永久位移引起的破坏也占很大比重。应用与概率估计地震动相似的方法,给出不同概率水准的地震地表永久位移,使之服务于穿越地震发震断层管线、桥梁工程的抗震设防,采取有效的抗御永久地表位移措施,减小地震灾害带来的损失。

A probabilistic approach to evaluate the permanent displacement crossing fault is presented, which is based on the frame work of Lee （2007） and Youngs （2003） and the parameters of potential source zone affirmed by the 4th seismic zoning map of China. Earthquake hazard investigation shows that the structures damage or collapse is caused not only by the strong ground motion, but also by the surface rupture or the permanent displacement. The ratio of structure failure caused by the surface rupture or the permanent displacement is very high, especially in near field of strong earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to determine the value of permanent displacement crossing fault in different probabilistic levels on the fault, which are identical to the levels of strong ground motion claimed in the code for seismic design of buildings （GB 50011 -2001 ） and the code for seismic design of oil and gas steel pipelines （SY/T0450 -2004） of China. Based on the results, the engineers may take measures for preventing the displacement in pipeline and long bridge engineering, so as to minimize the loss caused by earthquakes.