竞争性技术创新扩散模型及其应用

A Dynamic Diffusion Model of Competitive Multi-innovations and Its Application

基于竞争性技术创新扩散系统的定义及假设,提出了多项竞争性技术创新扩散系统的动力学模型,并将多智能体的建模理论与方法应用到竞争性技术创新扩散的分析中。通过大量仿真实验,将动力学模型、多智能体模型的预测结果和实际数据进行了对比分析,对未来的手机用户扩散数量进行了预测。分析结果认为,一项创新技术只有借助扩散,其潜在经济效益才能被最大限度地发挥。同时,分析结果也验证了该模型在实践中的可行性和有效性。

Based on the definition and the assumption of competitive technology innovation diffusion,this paper proposes a dynamic model,and applies a multi-agent simulation model in the analysis on competitive technology innovation diffusion. Then,it estimates the mobile user diffusion with the dynamic model and the multi-agent model, and compares estimation results with the real data. The result shows that the substantial eco- nomic effect of a innovation technology can be embodied only through diffusion. The result also demonstrates the effectiveness and the validity of this model.