贸易结构、人力资本与全要素生产率增长——基于中国数据的经验研究

Trade Composition,Human Capital and Total Factor Productivity——An empirical test base on China's data

贸易开放带来的技术溢出是发展中国家提高全要素生产率的重要渠道,技术溢出的效果与贸易结构相关,并且需要一定的人力资本存量相结合。本文运用DEA方法测算1980-2006年中国的全要素生产率变化,然后通过基于ECM的Granger因果关系检验法分析贸易结构和人力资本联合指标对全要素生产率变化的影响。结果显示:相对于中低技术品,高技术品进口的技术溢出效果更明显,在更大程度上提高我国的全要素生产率;相对于人力资本的结构和分布,人力资本水平更直接地影响技术溢出的吸收效果,影响全要素生产率。因此,调整贸易结构和增加教育投资是强化贸易开放的全要素生产率效应的两个必然的政策选择。

Technology spillover stem from international trade has become an important path to raise total factor productivity in many developing countries. The degree of the spillover is relate to trade composition and human capital. This article employs Data Envelopment Analysis to figure out China＇s TFP during 1980 and 2006, and, uses Error Correct Model and Granger Causality Test to analyze the relationship between trade composition, human capital and the change of TFP. We found： Products which is technology-intensive tend to raises TFP in a greater degree, and, comparing with the structure and distribution, the level of human capital affects TFP greatly. Thus, to adjust trade composition and increase education investment are indispensable policies for the growth of TFP.