摘要
基于对长沙地区1971—2000年30年雷暴气候特征的分析研究,采用数值模式输出统计、指数与经验指标、诊断分析三者相结合的MED法,同时引入莱克力指数、修正的K指数等物理量,综合应用数值预报产品、经验指标及区域气象站资料,研究开发出该地区249个站点3—10月甚短期(6 h、6～12 h)雷暴危害度等级潜势预报模型;同时,采用MOS法,研制出短期0～48 h雷暴活动移动趋势预报模型。模型以Web GIS技术为依托,建立了集数据采集、存储、开发、管理、分析和信息传输与发布、信息实时处理等功能于一体的网络信息服务平台。长沙市甚短期雷暴危害度等级潜势预报模型两年(2006—2007年)的业务运行情况表明,该模型对雷暴落区及强度均有较强的预报能力。
The characteristics of thunderstorm weather in Changsha from 1971 to 2000 are analyzed by the MED method combining numeric model output statistics,experience indices and diagnostic analysis with Tmj index, adjusted K-index. By comprehensively applying numerical prediction, experience indices and regional weather observations, the very short range （6 h,6-12 h） grade forecast model of thunderstorm potential harm of 249 weather stations during March and October is developed. Meanwhile, the short-term （0-48 h） trend forecast model of thunderstorm movement is developed by the MOS method. Depending on Web GIS, the network information service platform assembling collection, storage, development, management, analysis of data, transmission, publish and handle of information into an organic whole is established. The operation of the short-term forecast model in Changsha during 2006 and 2007 shows that this system performs excellent on the areas and intensity forecasts of thunder and rainstorm.
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2008年第3期258-263,共6页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
长沙市气象局重点项目"长沙市雷电监测与预警预报业务系统"资助
