基于元胞自动机和GIS的城市建设用地扩展模拟预测研究

A Study of Urban Constructional Land Expansion Simulation and Prediction Based on CA Model and GIS

城市建设用地扩展是一个持续运行的涉及诸多社会因素的复杂时空动态过程,通过介绍与城市扩展相关的几种城市土地利用类型转变方式,对CA模型进行扩展,提出基于地理实体环境的CA模型演变规则;与GIS集成,模拟和预测长江三角洲某地区城市建设用地规模和布局;最后提出未来城市扩展研究中CA的展望。

The expansion of urban construction land i s a dynamic and complicated spatiotemporal process, involving many social factors. Through an introduction to some transformation forms of urban land use connected with urban expansion, this paper expands CA model and puts forward the evolution rules based on the specific geographic environment. Integrated with GIS, the improved model is used to simulate and forecast the scale and layout of a typical city in the Yangtze River Delta. Finally, the paper predicts the trend of CA model applied in the research of urban expansion.