危机预警中的政府信息管理与调控——基于人口安全预警系统的研究

Information Management and Scheduling in Crisis Warning——Based on Population Security Forewarning System

对预警信息的科学调控能够有效提升危机预警工作质量。本文以人口安全预警系统为例,建构了预警系统参与要素协作模型和预警临界值选择模型。在此基础上,从信息要素与信息流角度分析了预警系统的整体构成、要素协作机制与信号表达机制,并进而反思了危机预警中的政府信息管理角色和信息调控模式,提出了提升预警预测精度和时间效率的途径与方法。

Scientifically scheduled forewarning information can enhance the qualities of crisis warning effectively. This paper takes the forewarning system of population security as an example to build two research models on participation and critical value choice. By these models of information elements and information flows, the paper analyzes the forewarning system from three aspects： physical structure, cooperation mechanism and signal mechanism. It then proposes some methods and channels to promote the accuracy and time efficiency of the forewarning system.