优化的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在港口吞吐量预测中的应用

Application of optimized gray renewal GM(1,1) model in forecasting port's throughput

针对常规GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,尝试用优化的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型来进行预测,并加以比较。结论表明:优化的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型能够明显地提高预测精度,增加预测的可靠程度,从而为港口的发展战略研究提供一定的技术支持。

In view of the deficiency of the GM（ 1,1 ） model, the optimized gray renewal GM（ 1,1 ） model is used to predict the port throughout capacity. The conclusion indicates that the optimized gray renewal GM（ 1,1 ） model can obviously improve the precision of forecasting, increase the reliability of prediction. Then it can provide much technological support for strategic research port development.