基于时变消费倾向的城乡居民实际收入调整

On the Adjustment of the Real Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents Based on Time-Varing MPC

利用1978-2005年的官方收入数据并采用配对样本T检验分析了名义与实际城乡收入比的差别,检验结果表明:价格因素对城乡居民收入差距影响显著;根据城乡居民实际消费水平,构造了含时变结构的消费—收入模型;根据时变边际消费倾向对城乡居民实际收入进行调整,得到了观测期内经调整的实际收入比的时序数据,并表明:城乡居民经调整后的实际收入差距在1978-1988年间呈现缩小的特征,特别是1984-1988年间是城乡居民收入差距最小的时期,1989-2005年间,这一差距呈现不断扩大的趋势,自2002年起城乡居民实际收入比超过4;最后对部分学者测算的城乡收入差距进行了对比分析。

Firstly, this paper compares the difference between nominal and real ratio of urban and rural income per capita, which indicates that the price has a significant influence on the urban - rural income gap. Secondly, according to the real level of consumption, this paper builds a time- varying structure of the consumption - income model. Using the time series of MPC, we adjust the real ratio of urban - rural income per capita. The data shows that the trend of the gap of urban - rural income per capita has increased. Lastly, this paper summarized the gap of income of urban - rural income per capita calculated by partly literatures.