中原城市群城市承载力评价研究

Urban Carrying Capacity Evaluation of Zhongyuan City Agglomeration

在快速城镇化背景下,城市发展与资源环境中的矛盾日益突出。本文选取中原城市群中土地、水资源、交通和环境要素承载力指标,建立城市综合承载力评价指标体系。通过综合评价与比较分析,得出如下结论:①水资源承载力对中原城市群的发展影响最大,而且是城市群发展中的短板要素;②城市群供给指数低于需求指数;③城市综合承载力在五大城市群中处于中等水平;④郑州和洛阳引领城市群发展的能力有限。针对上述问题,作者从城市发展速度、模式以及居民行为方式等方面提出提高承载力的政策建议。

The conflicts between city development and environment resources become more and more serious in the quick urbanization in China. The urban carrying capacity have direct relationship with city sustainable development. The author took Zhongyuan city agglomeration as a case, and chose twelve indictors including land carrying capacity, water resource carrying capacity, transportation carrying capacity and environment carrying capacity, in order to constructs comprehensive evaluation system. These index reflects the reciprocities between human activity and city resource, resource environment supply and demand. Based on evaluation and comparison, the author analyzes the problems in urban carrying capacity and the cause. The result shows that： ①Water carrying capacity become the most important factor that influenced the city development. ②The supply index does not match demand index. ③The comprehensive carrying capacity is middle level in five city agglomeration. ④The development capacity of Zhengzhou and Luoyang city is limited. To solve these problems, some measures are taken： ①The Zhongyuan city agglomeration should overcome water shortage in way of increasing the water supply restricting appropriately demand, and improving the usage efficiency.②The urban carrying capacity structure should be optimized in order to play whole advantages. Some measures should be taken not only in water carrying capacity but only in land carrying capacity, transportation carrying capacity, and environment carrying capacity. ③The speed of urbanization should be adjusted. Population should concentrate in middle and small city instead of in big city to reduce the water, land, transportation, environment pressure. Constructing proper urban system become one of the most efficient ways to reduce resource pressure and achieve the co-prosperity aim. ④The concept and crisis sense of limited resource, energy and environment should be built up. Changing the mode of city development and building up encouragement system is more important measure to carry out sustainable development.