当前中国宏观经济的几个重要问题——在宝钢发展经营管理高级研修班上的报告

On Several Key Issues in Current China’s Macroeconomy——Report on the Advanced Development Management Class in Baosteel Group

文章认为,2008年上半年中国经济的特点是"高增长、高通胀",已经到了要作出政策调整的时候。具体而言,是要在宏观方面通过政策的调整来处理好经济增长与通货膨胀、当前与长远、总量和结构、内需和外需、全局和局部、发展与改革的关系问题,保持经济增长和抑制通货膨胀的最佳平衡点是增长率10%或者比10%稍多、通胀率在6%～7%之间。文章指出,解决当前增长与通胀的问题已经不是"防止经济过热和防止通货膨胀"而是"保增长、抑通胀"或者是"促增长、抑通胀";解决长远发展问题则是尽早提出调整产业结构、转变经济增长方式、加快技术创新等一系列带有长远性、深层次的治理方略并加以实施。

The characteristic of China＇s economy in the first half 2008 is ＂High Growth, High Inflation＂. Therefore, it is time to make the policy adjustment, that is to adjust the policies in macro-economy in order to handle the relations between the economic growth and inflation, the current and future, the total amount and structure, the domestic demand and foreign demand, the whole and partial, the development and reformation. The best balance point of keeping economic growth and restraining inflation is 10% or higher growth rate and 6% to 7% inflation rate. It is pointed out that now the problem is not to ＂prevent economy overheat and restrain inflation＂, but to keep growth and restrain inflation. To solve these problems, the policies for the future development is to carry out a series of effective long-term plans such as to adjust the industrial structure, improve the way of economic growth and technology innovation.