新一轮农产品价格波动周期:特征、机理及影响

The New-round Fluctuation Cycle of Agricultural Products Prices: Characteristics,Mechanism and Effects

文章运用H-P滤波法,将1978-2006年的农产品价格波动分为了五个周期。2007年农产品价格上涨是第六个周期的开始。农产品价格波动各周期的整体特征和结构特征各不相同。另外,第六个周期农产品价格上涨主要是由国际价格的传导、生产成本的推动、加工需求的拉动、突发因素的扰动引起。此次农产品价格上涨不会导致通货膨胀;相反,通货膨胀会导致农产品价格上涨。

This article divides the fluctuations of agricultural products prices from 1978 to 2006 into five cycles using the H-P Filter method. The rising of agricultural products ＇ prices in 2007 means the beginning of the sixth cycle. Each cycle of agricultural products＇ prices fluctuations is different in general characteristics and structural characteristics. Meanwhile, the agricultural products prices＇ rising of the sixth cycle is mainly due to the international markets＇ impacts, push of production costs, pull of demand in manufacturing, and other emergent factors. The rising of agricultural products＇ prices would not cause inflation; however, the inflation does contribute to the rising of agricultural products prices.