应急动态决策的行为过程与模式研究

Study on Behavioral Process and Models of Emergency Dynamic Decision

应急决策是一种具有较强艺术性的非程序化决策活动,决策者的行为心理特征对决策过程及结果具有十分重要的影响。在应急决策过程中,由于事态的不确定性动态变化以及决策信息少、时间短、压力大等特点,人们的决策目标和策略只能是渐进式的满意决策而不可能实现决策结果的最优化。同时,大部制应急决策体制是我国应急管理发展模式的必然选择,而基于行为心理过程的信息处理模式对我国科学应对突发公共事件具有十分重要的现实意义。

The process of emergency decision is not an invariable procedure what shows more artistic, and there is an important interaction between Decision -maker＇s behavioral psychology and decision payoffs. In the decision process, our decision goals and strategies only are asymptote and satisfaction on the sake of dynamic uncertainty of event change and less decision information, little decision time and larger decision pressure. Moreover, decision system of federal department should be becoming a development trend of China emergency management, and the information process model based on behavioral psychology will bring very important signification of practice to scientific administration the unexpected public events.