基于个人风险的土地利用规划在LNG储备库的应用

The application of the individual risk-based approach for land use planning in LNG station

对基于个人风险的土地利用规划进行研究,确定方法的框架和程序,并应用于某拟建液化天然气储备库周边的土地利用与布局调整。对拟建天然气储备库可能发生的事故,选取蒸气云爆炸及沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸进行讨论。在确定事故发生概率及事故后果的基础上,对拟建液化天然气储备库的个人风险进行计算。借鉴英国土地利用规划中个人风险的可接受标准,在液化天然气储备库周围划分三个风险区域,根据各区域的功能规定及储备库周围土地利用现状,对储备库周围的土地利用进行规划与调整。结果表明,液化天然气储备库附近有两处居民区、一个工厂需要搬迁。基于个人风险的土地利用规划方法在合理确定重大工程选址及周边建筑与设施的布局上是行之有效的方法。

This paper performed quantitative risk analysis of a liquified natural gas station which was planned to built. According to the result of risk analysis, land utilization in the neighborhood of the proposed liquified natural gas station was determined. By making a judgment on the accidents which were likely to happen, jet fire, flash fire, vapor cloud explosion and boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion were included. But in this paper, only vapor cloud explosion and boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion were discussed because of their seriousness. Then individual risk was calculated. Refered to the acceptable criterion of individual risk in UK, three risk zones were defined. According to present situation of land utilization , a proposal about how and what to develop in a risk zone separately was given. The results showed that two settlements and a factory which located in the neighborhood of the proposed liquified natural gas station must be relocated.