船舶机损事故人误原因因素的灰色识别研究

Grey Relativity Analysis of Human Error Causal Factors in the Shipping Mechanical Casualties

为识别船舶机损事故中人误主要影响因素,基于认知系统工程分类方法,应用层次分析法构建3个层次的船舶机损事故人误原因因素结构模型,对随机抽取的某海运公司近6年发生的69起人误机损事件,运用灰色关联分析方法进行分析,计算出人误与各影响因素的关联度,定量反映人误与各因素之间的相互关系,识别出船舶机损事故中人误原因的主要影响因素,并提出相应的预防措施。

A three-layer model to analyzing the human error causal factors in the shipping mechanical casualties was established based on the cognitive engineering taxonomy systems, with the basic principle of AHP （analytic hierarchy process）. Total of 69 pieces of shipping mechanical casualties was statistically analyzed, the impact of human error causal factors was calculated with grey relativity analysis methods, and main human error causal factors were identified. The corresponding preventive measures were put forward to reduce the shipping mechanical casualties.